For the second time, the duo of Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola and Senator Ademola Adeleke are ready to fight for the number one seat in Osun State. Our correspondent reports that as in 2018, the chances of the two politicians are almost equal.
As the July 16, 2022 gubernatorial election in Osun State gathers momentum, the way appears to be clear for Senator Ademola Adeleke, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and incumbent Governor, Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Although there are still issues against the emergence of Adeleke and Oyetola from their respective parties, barring unforeseen circumstances, Adeleke and Oyetola would represent the PDP and the APC as they are the candidates recognized by the national leadership of the two parties. Both candidates know the field well. Adeleke and Oyetola were their party’s candidates in the 2018 elections and it was fierce competition. Both candidates have almost equal chances of becoming governor while they are equally plagued by some unfavorable factors.
Adeleke’s selling point
Senator Ademola Adeleke continued to enjoy the goodwill of his brothers – the late Senator Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke and Dr. Deji Adeleke. The late Senator Adeleke served as the state’s first civilian governor, while Dr. Adeleke is a businessman and the father of popular musician David Adeleke, also known as Davido.
Before his death, Senator Adeleke was a very prominent politician in the state and had many supporters. The majority of those who support young Ademola Adeleke now do so because of the senior Adeleke, given their relationship with the deceased. Most people are of the opinion that without his late brother, Ademola could not run for governor as he was not a politician to begin with.
And Senator Ademola Adeleke also often acknowledges that he appreciated his late brother’s goodwill. After winning the senatorial seat from Osun West, he admitted that his victory was due to his brother’s “historic goodwill” and influence.
Speaking after the by-election, he said: “I had fun during the campaign and enjoyed my dance because my brother (Isiaka) had done 70% of the job with his historic goodwill since he became Executive Governor in 1991.” Due to Dr. Adeleke’s financial ability, many feel comfortable following Senator Ademola Adeleke, believing that securing funds to run the campaign and elections would not be a problem.
There is a commotion from the people of the Osun West Senate District to produce the governor. After Senator Adeleke, Osun West has not produced another governor. In 1999, Chief Adebisi Akande of Ila-Orangun in Osun Central became Governor and Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola of Okuku also in Osun Central became Governor in 2003. Mr. Rauf Aregbesola of Osun East took over as Governor. Oyinlola in 2010 and handed over to the outgoing governor. Adegboyega Oyetola from Iragbiji, Osun Central, in 2018.
The people of Osun West were determined to produce the governor of the state again, which could be to the advantage of Sen Ademola Adeleke of Ede in Osun West.
Desire for change
There are some people who just want a change of government and prefer a new governor. This set of people would support Adeleke. They just have sympathy for him and want the incumbent governor out. Also, this category includes those who have not directly benefited from Oyetola’s administration and who want a change of power so that the benefits can be transferred to another group of people in the state.
Adeleke’s weak point
Crisis in Osun PDP: The intra-party crisis in the Osun State PDP chapter could once again jeopardize Sen Adeleke’s chances if left unresolved. Apparently the majority of aspirants who fought for the PDP ticket including former state government secretary Alhaji Fatai Akinbade and popular businessman Dr Akin Ogunbiyi and their supporters might not work for Adeleke given the circumstances surrounding the party’s primary election. , while Prince Dotun Babayemi, who was declared the winner of the party’s parallel primary election, could also be a big deal.
Key party leaders who matter including Senator Olu Alabi, Alhaji Suaib Oyedokun, former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, former Deputy Governor, Erelu Olusola Obada and Alhaji Tajudeen Oladipo are with Babayemi and it could be difficult for Adeleke to to face the elections without the support of this group of political leaders of his party.
Certificate issue: Senator Adeleke’s certificate was a major topic in the last state gubernatorial election. His opponent used the question to distract him as they insisted he was not qualified to run for office. The certificate issue is also coming now and it can be used again. However, the PDP candidate claimed to have obtained a certificate from an overseas institution.
Lack of leadership experience: Many people believe that Senator Ademola Adeleke does not have enough leadership experience and does not have a personal business to acquire the leadership skills necessary for a holder of such a high office. Many of his critics were unhappy with his dancing habit and saw him as someone incapable of managing state affairs.
The strength of Oyetola
Ownership and federal power: As a member of the ruling party, Governor Oyetola would enjoy some level of federal power by enlisting the help of his party men in the center, while also being able to wield incumbent power as sitting governor of the state which controls the resources and the security apparatus of the state. Previous elections in the state in the past were not without the involvement of the federal government and the Abuja factor often plays a major role although it may not be common knowledge.
Tinubu/Lagos postman: Apparently, human and material resources are being mobilized for Governor Oyetola from Lagos due to the interest of APC leader and presidential candidate of the party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is the brother of Governor Oyetola. In the last election between Oyetola and Adeleke, Tinubu moved to Osogbo for election purposes and secured Oyetola’s victory in the election.
First quarter performance: Governor Oyetola’s current performance would surely work for him in the gubernatorial election. Since becoming governor, Oyetola pays full and regular wages to workers and continues to execute capital projects throughout the state. The governor started and completed a flyover in Osogbo within a year and it did not affect other highway projects across the state. Many people think his performance will get him more votes.
Osun APC Crisis: The battle for supremacy between Oyetola and Home Secretary Mr Rauf Aregbesola had undoubtedly torn the party apart in the state. State party members loyal to Aregbesola formed a group known as The Osun Progressives (TOP) and the caucus eventually introduced former state government secretary Alhaji Moshood Adeoti to replace Oyetola , but the governor defeated Adeoti in the primary election. The TOP leadership said the primary election was rigged in favor of the governor and went to court to invalidate the election. The case is still before the courts and the crisis between Oyetola and Aregbesola has not yet been resolved, which could reduce Governor Oyetola’s chances in the election.
Zoning issue: Residents of the Osun West Senate District who believe in the agitation for the zoning arrangement may not vote for Oyetola. They just want the job back in Osun West by any means. So, many people from Osun West might opt for Adeleke for this reason.
Hard times/economic crisis: Many locals are lamenting the current economic crisis in the country and some of them believe that the APC-led government has failed to improve life and that APC should be removed from the state to the presidency.